time：2024-04-07 source：高工鋰電網(wǎng)
In March 2024, Academician Ouyang Minggao stated at the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People Conference Forum that achieving a strong automobile country relies on the "four modernizations", namely electrification, intelligence, low-carbon, and globalization. We also refuted and clarified doubts about electric vehicles being not new energy vehicles, higher fire risks, battery recycling pollution, and energy replenishment issues, and conveyed a rational voice to new energy vehicle customers and consumers.
Electrification, as the primary strategic direction for China to become a strong automobile country, has played a huge role in promoting the development of the power battery industry. From the data, it can be seen that in the current situation where the penetration rate of China's automobile electrification has exceeded 30%, the future market demand will still maintain a medium to high growth rate.
According to GGII research data, the shipment volume of power batteries in China was 630GWh in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 31.4%. It is expected that the growth rate will continue to decline in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20%~30%.
The driving forces for the continued growth of the industry are as follows:
1) Domestic demand is growing rapidly, and with the continuous decline in the cost of core components such as power batteries and the launch of more diverse electric vehicle models, it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 11.5 million units (including exports) by 2024;
2) According to customs data, the export scale of lithium batteries (including PACK) in China in 2023 was 65.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%, and based on price calculations, the export electricity in 2023 increased by over 40%. Considering that the penetration rate of overseas new energy vehicles is lower than that of the domestic market, their demand growth rate will be higher than that of the domestic market;
Shipping volume and forecast of power lithium batteries in China from 2019 to 2027 (GWh,%)
Data source: High Tech Lithium Battery Research Institute (GGII), March 2024
3) The electrification rate of commercial vehicles is accelerating. In 2023, the Chinese new energy commercial vehicle market officially entered the era of "no subsidies", with steady sales growth reaching 334000 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and a new car sales penetration rate of 8.3%. In 2024, under the background of cost reduction and carbon reduction in logistics, mining and other industries, accelerating the oil to battery exchange of logistics vehicles and heavy-duty trucks has become a trend. Coupled with the decline in lithium battery prices, it is expected that the sales of new energy commercial vehicles in China will exceed 600000 units in 2024, which will drive the demand for lithium batteries to increase.
In addition to maintaining growth in market space, there will also be significant changes in the market structure, battery cell technology, and new material applications of power batteries.
From the perspective of the power battery market structure, the proportion of shipments of lithium iron phosphate power batteries will exceed 70% for the first time in 2023, and it is expected that the high point proportion will exceed 75%. GGII believes that the market share of lithium iron phosphate power batteries in China will remain high in the short term, but the gap with ternary power batteries will gradually narrow (thanks to the impact of fast charging and long endurance). The reason is:
1) The performance improvement of iron lithium batteries still has a ceiling;
2) The global development of nickel, cobalt and other resources is further fully utilized, and the sufficient supply of raw materials has led to a decrease in upstream material prices, resulting in a narrowing of the gap between the cost of ternary power cells and lithium iron phosphate;
3) The new battery route drives an increase in the proportion of ternary power batteries, such as solid-state and large cylindrical batteries.
From the perspective of battery cell performance trends, fast charging performance is a key development focus from 2024 to 2026. Multiple fast charging system solutions will be launched, which will drive the demand for positive and negative electrode materials/liquid cooling solutions, additives/conductive agents, and charging infrastructure to increase.
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