time：2024-01-10 source：高工鋰電網(wǎng)
In 2023, "internal competition and excess" have become industry consensus. Whether it's electricity, industry and commerce, household energy storage, domestic or overseas markets, upstream materials and equipment, downstream components and integration. In the stage of structural and phased overcapacity, the industry is experiencing a "song of ice and fire", with companies offering prices, delivery times, and local services... On the one hand, there are many cross-border players, with over 70000 newly registered companies in 2023. On the other hand, there are many exits, and the profitability of enterprises is being squeezed, facing a crisis of cash flow and layoffs.
In 2023, despite experiencing pains, the prospects for energy storage remain positive. China, the United States, Europe, and the mainland have issued a statement to increase their renewable energy installation targets. Major countries and regions such as China, the United States, Europe, and India have achieved unexpected growth in photovoltaic installation. Energy storage demand in emerging markets such as the Middle East, South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia is on the rise, and new energy storage technologies represented by lithium batteries are rapidly reducing costs, accelerating their penetration in segmented application scenarios and emerging markets.
The prospect of energy storage is certain, but the path is winding. The Institute of Advanced Industrial Research (GGII) believes that the global energy storage market has entered a reshuffle period from a period of rapid development, and it will continue for the next 1-2 years. Multiple changes such as slowing growth rate, overcapacity, profit compression, market segmentation, technological iteration, capital cooling, and safety accidents will accelerate the differentiation of enterprises.
GGII predicts the top ten trends in China's new energy storage market in 2024 through industry analysis and research, combined with macro trends and enterprise data:
Prediction 1: It is expected that the global pre table installed capacity will increase by 40% in 2024, and the shipment of energy storage systems/batteries will increase by about 25%. The global shipment of energy storage systems will exceed 160GWh
From the demand side, global pre meter energy storage remains strong. In 2023, China, the United States, and Europe announced an increase in renewable energy construction. In the future, China and the United States will remain the main markets for pre meter energy storage worldwide.
The US market, due to the highly dispersed and independent regional power grid, outdated facilities, and stronger demand for energy storage, is limited by factors such as grid connection difficulties, labor shortages, and supply chains. Despite high investment subsidies, the short-term installed capacity growth rate is limited, and there are still massive energy storage projects waiting to be connected to the grid. Driven by technological innovation and continuous cost reduction, China's cost of lithium-ion energy storage is approaching that of pumped storage, and its application scale will continue to expand.
Affected by the dual carbon strategy and regional energy structure, the demand for pre surface energy storage in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, South Asia, Australia, South Africa, South America and other regions is also continuously increasing. It is expected that the global pre meter installed capacity will still exceed the shipment growth rate in 2024, and the installed capacity will exceed 130GWh. The global shipment of energy storage systems (pre meter and post meter) will exceed 160GWh, and the global shipment of energy storage batteries will exceed 200GWh.
Prediction 2: The global household storage market is showing a structural inventory state, and regional inventory will return to normal levels in H1 2024. It is expected that the global household storage lithium battery shipment will be 25GWh in 2024
The high expectations of the household storage market in 2023 have led to a continuous backlog of inventory among channel merchants. Due to differences in global demand, installation speed, and product certification, different regions exhibit a structured inventory distribution. It is expected that industry inventory will be fully depleted as early as January 2024 and no later than June 2024. During this period, the household storage and installation/shipment ratio will continue to adjust, reflecting the gradual return of rationality in the supply chain. The inventory ratio will fall back to the level of 0.6-0.8.
In 2023, the US household storage market was affected by interest rate hikes and the NEM3.0 policy, resulting in a decrease in the willingness of households to install photovoltaic and energy storage units. It is expected that interest rate hikes will end in 2024, and the US market still has significant growth potential. It is expected that by 2024, the global household storage capacity will be 22GWh, and the shipment of household lithium batteries will be 25GWh.
Prediction 3: The segmented application scenarios of industrial and commercial energy storage will continue to increase, with obvious regional market differentiation. It is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 30% in 2024
Affected by electricity pricing policies, subsidy policies, and industrial development foundations in different provinces/cities/regions, the differences in the industrial and commercial energy storage market will continue to expand. In the short term, provinces and cities such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong will occupy the vast majority of market demand, and some enterprises will take the lead in forming brand awareness and channel influence in regional markets. It is expected that the shipment growth rate of industrial and commercial energy storage will maintain over 30% in 2024, The approval of grid connection filing may become a key factor affecting market growth.
In 2024, it is expected that policies will gradually promote existing electricity consumers to shift from purchasing electricity through agents to directly participating in market-oriented transactions. More and more industrial and commercial users will gain profits through participating in demand side response, virtual power plants, and other means. With the increase in the proportion of new energy, the peak valley price difference in most provinces will still show an expanding trend, and the afternoon low valley electricity price model will be implemented in more provinces.
Driven by the expansion of industry coverage in (light) storage and charging, carbon market, and distributed photovoltaic distribution and storage policies, industrial and commercial energy storage is expected to be applied on a large scale in segmented scenarios. At the same time, the combination of segmented industries, scenarios, and industrial and commercial energy storage will be further strengthened. The energy storage demand in typical application scenarios such as zero carbon parks, port shore power, solar energy storage, oil+energy storage, and microgrids will continue to expand.
In the context of the national strategy of "counting from east to west" and the rapid development of AI, computing power has become the biggest driving force for the development of data centers. GGII predicts that the penetration rate of lithium-ion UPS products will accelerate in the next five years.
Prediction 4: Centralized procurement and independent energy storage will remain mainstream, bidding requirements will become stricter, central enterprises will participate more, and the concentration of the battery cell industry will continue to increase
In 2024, based on safety and quality considerations, the bidding requirements of the source network owner will continue to be improved on the existing basis, such as clarifying product technology and brand requirements in areas such as systems, battery cells, PCS, and auxiliary materials. Further clarify the requirements for battery cells, such as specifying battery cell brands and not exceeding 30 days of inventory, to increase the CR10 of the large storage battery cell industry to over 90%.
In terms of distribution and storage policies, with the increase in the proportion of new energy installed capacity, some provinces will put forward higher requirements for energy storage and clarify rewards and punishments for distribution and storage. For example, in Gansu, Ningxia, and other places, grid construction will become the development direction of energy storage in the northwest.
In terms of bidding methods, the proportion of centralized procurement and independent energy storage will continue to expand.
In terms of bidding participation, some downstream owners such as State Power Investment Corporation, China Electric Power Construction Corporation, and China Energy Construction Corporation will gradually put their energy storage cell/integrated/PACK production lines into operation. In the future, their energy storage companies will further leverage the group's resource and industry chain synergy advantages, and participate more in project bidding as integrators. Pure integrator enterprises will face greater pressure.
Prediction 5: Domestic spot trading and auxiliary service rules are becoming increasingly perfect, energy storage is opening up new business models, and economic difficulties are expected to improve
In 2023, there are still difficulties in cost diversion and low system utilization of independent energy storage power stations in China. Capacity leasing and electricity market revenue are at a relatively low level, and the business model is weak. It is expected that more provinces and cities will introduce policies similar to those in Shandong and Shanxi to encourage the conversion of allocated energy storage to independent energy storage. Independent energy storage will enter the electricity spot market through more flexible methods such as "quantity quotation", and the business model of energy storage will be further expanded.
In the future, more provinces such as Shandong, Xinjiang, and Hunan will pilot capacity compensation, capacity markets, and other forms to improve the capacity pricing mechanism, as well as the types of auxiliary services. Driven by cost reduction in scale and expansion of electricity market returns, energy storage power stations have crossed the investment profit line, with a 30% increase in daily full discharge frequency from 0.58 times in the first half of 2023 to 0.75 times. Some provinces, such as Shanxi, have been driven by the primary frequency regulation market for more than once, and investment will shift from policy driven to market value driven, especially in the northwest, north, and provinces with scarce regulatory resources.
Prediction 6: In 2024, the overall energy storage market will experience oversupply, and competition in system integration will be more fierce than in the battery cell segment. More than 50% of energy storage system enterprises will be eliminated, and CR10 will share over 80% of the market share
According to preliminary statistics from GGII, there are approximately 100 energy storage system enterprises (including large storage systems, industrial and commercial storage systems, household storage systems, etc.) that have initially formed a scale in 2023, and there are still some enterprises entering gradually. Compared to energy storage cell manufacturers, pure system integration enterprises have lower technical barriers and mainly focus on assembly production or OEM. Their core competitiveness lies in their ability to obtain orders.
In 2024, energy storage capacity will continue to be surplus, and oversupply will become the main trend in the market. With the entry of energy storage subsidiaries of central state-owned enterprises (power generation groups/power grid companies/local energy groups) and competition from integrated enterprises with core component supply capabilities, the market share of pure integrated enterprises will continue to be squeezed, and the risk of being eliminated will greatly increase. It is expected that more than 50% of energy storage system enterprises will be eliminated. At the same time, the market share of CR10 system enterprises continues to expand and will occupy more than 80% of the market.
Prediction 7: The price of energy storage cells will remain stable at around 0.4 yuan/Wh, and the cost reduction pressure on the AC side will shift from main materials to auxiliary materials. It is expected that the price of the system (0.5C) will stabilize at 0.8 yuan/Wh, but there will still be disorderly competition below the cost price
After destocking in the second half of 2023, battery manufacturers expect the market supply to return to rationality, from decoupling to anchoring lithium carbonate again to cope with overcapacity. It is expected that the energy storage battery cells will bottom out at 0.35-0.37/Wh (including tax prices for second and third tier battery cells) in 2024, and then rise to above 0.4 yuan/Wh. Compared to 2023, prices tend to be balanced throughout the year, with a fluctuation of no more than 20%.
The cost reduction of the energy storage system on the communication side will shift from main materials (battery cells, PCS) to auxiliary materials (fire protection, temperature control, etc.), starting with liquid cooling and fire protection systems. Compared to the gross profit of battery cells and PCS (<5% and 20% in 23 years, respectively), the gross profit of liquid cooling solutions and fire protection systems is over 30%. With the entry of new auxiliary material enterprises, it is expected that there is still 10-15% room for price reduction of auxiliary material systems in 24 years.
Overall, the price of the communication side energy storage system (0.5C) is consistent with the fluctuation pattern of the battery cells, with a fluctuation amplitude not exceeding 20%. However, the competition pressure in the energy storage system is significantly higher than that in the battery cell process, and disorderly and malicious low price competition will still exist.
Prediction 8: A new energy storage product equipped with 314Ah will be shipped in bulk in Q2 2024. The battery cells and PCS technology will be upgraded, but 280Ah and system products will still be the mainstream products for power energy storage
71173-314Ah is expected to become the next generation of mainstream energy storage cells, and 5MWh system products equipped with 314Ah will be shipped gradually in Q2 2024 after 3-6 months of certification. It has been announced that 300Ah+battery cells will be mass-produced in Q1 2024, but 280Ah and system products will still be the mainstream products for power energy storage in 2024.
High temperature cells and high energy efficiency (96+%) cells based on system level efficiency will be released in 2024. The upgraded version of the cells can effectively reduce the power consumption of auxiliary source equipment in the system and improve overall energy efficiency. The upgrade of PCS focuses on miniaturization and integration, and the application of silicon carbide devices will further improve the performance of PCS. At the same time, considering cost, it is imperative for PCS to integrate BMS main and main control modules.
Energy storage enterprises that master core component technology will increase product added value through technology and product iteration to avoid falling into price competition.
Prediction 9: Sodium ion batteries and large cylinders are expected to be applied in household storage, and 2024 will be the first year of large-scale expansion of large cylinders
There are currently over 30 companies (including sodium battery companies) developing and laying out large cylindrical batteries. Except for the steel shell full pole ear large cylindrical battery that has not yet achieved large-scale modulus production, other types of large cylindrical batteries have been mass-produced, and their terminal applications are mainly aimed at energy storage and low battery power markets (including lithium-ion light vehicles, etc.).
The large cylindrical battery products of domestic lithium battery enterprises are still in the development and verification stage, and production line design and equipment procurement are also ongoing. Based on the equipment development cycle and production line construction cycle, it is expected that 2024 will be the concentrated release period of domestic large cylindrical battery production capacity. Large cylindrical batteries have significant development space in household storage and commercial storage fields, mainly due to:
1) Good safety;
2) The internal layout has flexible compatibility;
3) Low cost under standardized system.
Meanwhile, in 2024, sodium ion batteries will take the lead in commercial applications in household energy storage, electric two wheeled vehicles, A00 level passenger cars, and base station energy storage. With the continuous improvement of scale and manufacturing processes, the price of sodium ion batteries will continue to steadily decline, driving their large-scale application in more fields such as industrial and commercial energy storage.
Prediction 10: The shipment volume of all vanadium flow batteries will exceed GW for the first time in 2024, and the system price will be reduced to 2 yuan/Wh
Based on intrinsic safety and long-term energy storage considerations, liquid flow batteries, hydrogen energy storage, and water-based batteries will receive increasing attention and expectations in 2023. From 2022 to 2023, the cumulative winning bid for all vanadium based flow batteries exceeded 3GW. Due to limited battery capacity and electrolyte supply, delivery was delayed. With the release of industrial chain capacity, it is expected that the shipment volume of flow batteries will exceed 1GW in 2024.
The production capacity of liquid flow batteries (all vanadium, zinc iron, chromium iron, etc.) will be expanded to 10GW, and the core material of its electrolyte, vanadium pentoxide, will release about 40000 tons of production capacity, of which the vanadium extraction capacity from stone coal will release about 5000 tons. The release of vanadium material production capacity further stabilizes the prices of electrolytes and systems. It is expected that the price of vanadium pentoxide (98%, flake) will remain at 90000 yuan/ton throughout the year, and the price of all vanadium flow batteries will remain at 2-2.2 yuan/Wh.
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