time：2024-12-13 source：高工鋰電
The golden September and silver October have passed, but the peak season of the fourth quarter continues.
Recently, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers showed that sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.512 million units in November, a year-on-year increase of 47.4% and a month on month increase of 5.7%. From January to November, the sales of new energy vehicles reached 11.262 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.6%. The year-on-year growth in November was nearly 12 percentage points higher than that in January to November.
Compared to the November 2023 data, the year-on-year growth in sales of new energy vehicles in November this year was also 17 percentage points higher than the same period last year. From September to November, the peak season performance of the new energy vehicle market this year has been better than last year's year-on-year data.
It can be seen that compared to previous years, the peak season of the car market in 2024 exceeded expectations, demonstrating strong recovery momentum in the electric vehicle sector.
In addition to the increase in shipments, the car market prices during this year's peak season have also improved. The price war in the car market intensified in the first half of the year, with many car companies lowering prices one after another. However, due to price overdrafts in the early stage, the price war in the car market has eased since the peak season, and the increase in promotional efforts is not significant. At the same time, with policy support, the industry has gradually formed a consensus against "vicious internal competition", and price promotions have become more stable, providing support for the volume price growth of the car market.
In the battery sector, driven by strong sales growth in the downstream automotive market, the installed capacity performance this year has also been better than expected. Among them, the installed capacity of domestic power batteries reached 67.2GWh in November, a year-on-year increase of 49.7% and a month on month increase of 13.5%.
As the end of the year approaches, the market for the power battery industry chain will shift from prosperity to weakness. However, unlike previous years, battery companies maintain an optimistic attitude towards the future market and have not lowered their production schedules. This also means that from the "Golden September and Silver October" to the first quarter of the year, the shipment amplitude of the battery sector will shrink, and there is a chance to continue to maintain optimistic growth.
On the material side, after nearly two years of intense price wars, price bottoming has been achieved. Since the second quarter of this year, the magnitude of price decline has significantly narrowed. Since August, the price of lithium carbonate has remained above 70000 yuan/ton, and there has been a slight price rebound for positive electrode materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate. From the "Golden September and Silver October" to November, the overall price of lithium battery materials has remained stable with an upward trend, and many material companies have achieved high capacity utilization rates.
In the future, the trend of material prices is also becoming optimistic. GGII predicts that in the first quarter of 2025, the price war in the material field will ease, and material prices are expected to stabilize and rebound.
Based on the above factors, the lithium battery industry has achieved a safe "landing" in terms of price and market growth.
Observing the future trend and driving consumption has become the main policy tone in China. It is expected that by 2025, the policies of scrapping, updating, and exchanging old for new vehicles will continue to be relaxed, which will also drive the growth of the new energy vehicle market.
In addition, capacity control and price control are becoming a consensus in the lithium battery industry chain, while potential market growth has not yet been fully unleashed, such as in energy storage, electric aviation, electric ships, humanoid robots and other fields. With the market warming up and potential incremental release, it is expected that lithium battery shipments will further increase in the future.
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